Lithium carbonate prices surged 5.36%, approaching 72300 yuan/ton
On August 7, 2025, the lithium carbonate 2511 contract rose 5.36% to 72300 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 32062 lots. Affected by the shutdown and maintenance of some lithium mines in Jiangxi and the expiration of mining certificates, the market is concerned about the interruption of lithium supply, which has driven up prices. If the Jianxiawo mine under CATL ceases production, it will affect 5% of the global lithium supply. The domestic production of lithium carbonate decreased month on month in July, but it is expected that the supply will slightly rebound in August. During the same period, retail sales of new energy vehicles increased by 14%, driving up expectations for lithium demand. The current market is focused on the issue of mining licenses, and the subsequent trend depends on whether production is suspended and the movement of funds.
Long term trend of lithium carbonate: rational range of 100000 yuan/ton
Looking forward to the fourth quarter of 2025 to 2026, the lithium carbonate market is expected to achieve substantial supply-demand rebalancing, and the price center will gradually shift upwards. Multiple institutions predict that the supply and demand gap for lithium salts will continue to narrow by 2025, and may reach a substantial supply-demand balance by 2026, followed by a tight balance or even shortage state. This expected change is guiding various links in the industrial chain to adjust their strategies.
From a longer-term perspective, multiple industry experts believe that the price of lithium carbonate is expected to return to the "rational range" of around 100000 yuan/ton. Dr. Zhang Xiaofei, Chairman of Gaogong Lithium Battery, and industry authorities such as Xu Jinfu from Tianci Materials have pointed out that the price level of 100000 yuan/ton is relatively healthy for all links in the industry chain.
The rapid rebound in lithium carbonate prices is essentially the result of sustained policy guidance, market supply adjustments, improvement in demand margins, cost increases, and technological benefits. Overall, the lithium carbonate market has gone through its most difficult period and is entering a new cycle. Under the guidance of the "dual carbon" target, the strategic value of lithium as a "white oil" is beyond doubt, but its price trend will become more market-oriented and rational, and the extreme market conditions of the past may be difficult to reproduce. Only by grasping industry trends, understanding cost structures, and paying attention to technological changes can we find the right direction in the new cycle.
The first batch of power batteries welcomes the wave of retirement, and the battery recycling industry is experiencing a 'heat wave'
With the continuous increase in the number of new energy vehicles, China's power battery recycling industry is entering a critical development window period.
According to relevant data, as of the end of 2024, the total number of new energy vehicles in China has reached 31.4 million, and the installed capacity of power batteries has been leading the world for several consecutive years. However, behind this prosperous scene, a new problem is gradually emerging. The first batch of power batteries are gradually reaching the eight year warranty period, and with the implementation of various new energy vehicle replacement subsidy policies, the peak period of centralized retirement of power batteries is about to come.
As the "heart" of new energy vehicles, power batteries typically have a lifespan of 5 to 8 years. Nowadays, the power batteries of new energy vehicles that were put into use in the early stages are gradually entering the retirement stage. Industry research institutions predict that by 2030, the market size of power battery recycling will exceed 100 billion yuan, and the total amount of retired batteries will exceed 3.5 million tons, becoming an important link in the new energy industry chain.
Industry insiders say that power batteries contain precious metals such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel. If they are discarded or mishandled, it will not only cause waste of resources, but also serious pollution to the environment. Through professional recycling and processing, these precious metals can be re extracted and utilized, reducing dependence on primary mineral resources while minimizing environmental pollution, achieving a win-win situation for economic and environmental benefits.
How much CO2 is emitted by manufacturing batteries?
Lithium-ion batteries are a popular power source for clean technologies like electric vehicles, due to the amount of energy they can store in a small space, charging capabilities, and ability to remain effective after hundreds, or even thousands, of charge cycles. These batteries are a crucial part of current efforts to replace gas-powered cars that emit CO2 and other climate-warming greenhouse gases. These same capabilities also make these batteries good candidates for energy storage for the electric grid.
However, that does come with a cost, as the manufacturing process of the batteries and their components emits CO2, among other environmental and social concerns.
Producing lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles is more material-intensive than producing traditional combustion engines, and the demand for battery materials is rising, explains Yang Shao-Horn, JR East Professor of Engineering in the MIT Departments of Mechanical Engineering and Materials Science and Engineering. Currently, most lithium is extracted from hard rock mines or underground brine reservoirs, and much of the energy used to extract and process it comes from CO2-emitting fossil fuels.
Battery materials come with other costs, too. Mining raw materials like lithium, cobalt, and nickel is labor-intensive, requires chemicals and enormous amounts of water—frequently from areas where water is scarce—and can leave contaminants and toxic waste behind. Three-quarters of the world’s cobalt comes from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where questions about human rights violations such as child labor continue to arise.
Manufacturing also adds to these batteries’ eco-footprint, Shao-Horn says. To synthesize the materials needed for production, heat between 800 to 1,000 degrees Celsius is needed—a temperature that can only cost-effectively be reached by burning fossil fuels, which again adds to CO2 emissions.
Exactly how much CO2 is emitted in the long process of making a battery can vary a lot depending on which materials are used, how they’re sourced, and what energy sources are used in manufacturing. The vast majority of lithium-ion batteries—about 77% of the world’s supply—are manufactured in China, where coal is the primary energy source. (Coal emits roughly twice the amount of greenhouse gases as natural gas, another fossil fuel that can be used in high-heat manufacturing.)
For illustration, the Tesla Model 3 holds an 80 kWh lithium-ion battery. CO2 emissions for manufacturing that battery would range between 2400 kg (almost two and a half metric tons) and 16,000 kg (16 metric tons).1 Just how much is one ton of CO2? As much as a typical gas-powered car emits in about 2,500 miles of driving.
A second major environmental benefit these batteries could offer is energy grid stabilization, Shao-Horn adds. As the world moves towards renewable energy resources, like solar and wind power, demand grows for ways of storing and saving this energy. Using batteries to store solar and wind power when it’s plentiful can help solve one big problem of renewable energy—balancing oversupply and shortage when the weather isn’t ideal—making it much easier to switch from CO2-emitting fossil fuels.
